Anti-Dumping,  Tariffs and the Markets 
20 October 2018

The third period of review will be starting shortly for Korea and Taiwan. Most of the mills and their legal team believe the antidumping duties will remain constant in the .5% to 3% range. This should be a relief for US consumers of nails.  
There is no sign that the initial, retaliatory or retaliatory response tariffs will be lifted. The chances of a change in tariffs seems to be about the same as finding the truth in politics.  
Steel prices are stable and the demand for nails from the pallet, industrial and construction sectors remains strong. Most mills we are working with have their entire production booked through January and are not shipping new orders until February or March. Excluding imports from China, this means nail prices should remain fairly stable on the purchasing side. Higher demands after the hurricane season could drive demand and pricing. 
The fasteners that are most likely to increase significantly are staples, brads and coil roofing nails. These were all excluded from the initial Chinese nail anti-dumping but will be hit with the next round of 10%-25% tariffs on China.  
No matter how we try to paint the picture, fastener prices are up and there is little chance of them dropping in the in 2019 

Wire Rod
This section purposely left blank (like my mind)
T, T, & T
This is an eye-opening commentary by a British Hong Konger who has been part of the process.

 China is not an angel, but I have watched and listened to purchasers sent to China to strike the best deal. Early 2000s I listened to 5 Americans talk about how quickly the Chinese were catching on to making furniture and how soon they could move production. Within 3 years the furniture industry in the US started to collapse. 
As I traveled though China we were shown a monstrosity of a building, owned by Wal*Mart, to be their central China purchasing center.  We were told that the Americans who were negotiating the purchases were ruthless and many companies who were awarded contracts ended up being driven out of business. 
We have witnessed the massive number of Buicks on the road as GM has investments in the second highest revenue car company in China. The number one taxi for years was the FIAT. 
Starting in 1980 I watched the globalization of the sneakers march from the US to Korea, to Malaysia, to Vietnam and China. Each step was made by Nike moving to lower costs to push product deeper into the US market. As hard as Nike tried to hold onto their production in Exeter NH, they could find a way to make the plant profitable. 
While at Weyerhaeuser we sent lumber to Taiwan and China to be made into furniture parts to be sold into the US and Europe. 
The reasoning is almost always the same. “We can’t find anyone in the US to produce what we need at a competitive price”.  More recently the reason has been “We cannot find anyone in the US to build the product at any price.” 

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